009
FXUS65 KVEF 242330
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
429 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue into
  this evening before diminishing. More isolated activity is
  expected over mainly Western Arizona Thursday before moving east.

* Dry and windy conditions expected Friday through Saturday Night,
  leading to increased fire danger.

* Following unseasonably mild temperatures, a gradual warmup is
  expected from the middle of next week through the July 4th
  weekend with Heat Risk increasing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak impulse coupled with abundant moisture will continue to
foster scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Given
how moist the low levels are, the fire risk appears somewhat
tempered. However, recent hi-res guidance does show isolated
thunderstorm activity may develop across parts of Lincoln County
into southwest Utah. This area has not moistened quite as much as
areas to the south, so some potential for dry thunder will remain
into the evening. This is also where two large fires are already
ongoing with dry fuels, so the remains some risk of new fire
starts if any storms manage to develop. Activity should gradually
shift to the east this evening into tonight and diminish with loss
of daytime heating. Isolated showers and storms can be expected
again on Thursday, mainly over Mohave county, before activity
moves to the east. Brief heavy downpours, lightning and gusty
winds will be the main concerns with any stronger storm.

Attention will then turn to a potent late season upper trough.
Both EC and GFS ensembles are in good agreement deepening this
feature across the PacNW, with a gradual shift southward toward
the Great Basin late in the week. This will bring a period of
breezy to windy conditions Friday into Saturday night.
Probabilities for 35-40+ mph winds will range from 60-90+ percent,
particularly from the Mojave Desert northward to the Vegas Valley
and Mohave County. This, coupled with afternoon humidity in the
5-15 percent range will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions,
particularly for fires in progress, which are likely to spread if
not contained. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect with a
strong likelihood that Red Flag Warnings will be needed. This
will be evaluated over the next 12-24 hours for potential upgrade.

Cooler temperatures will move into the Desert Southwest with this
upper trough, bringing temperatures down some 10-15 degrees below
normal. Highs will likely fall to below 100 degrees for many
areas with lows in the 60s and 70s through the weekend.
Thereafter, ensembles are in generally good agreement with a more
summer-like pattern developing ahead of the July 4th holiday
weekend. Temperatures will rise back to near or above normal as
early as Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Confidence remains low regarding the wind forecast into
the evening as showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move
east of the valley. Easterly winds associated with this activity
will likely prevail through 00Z, although speeds are expected to
gradually decrease as the convection moves farther away.  The
prevailing southerly wind field should return early this evening and
persist through the night.  Winds Thursday will likely remain
southerly through the day, with gusts to around 20 knots developing
during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday,
with remaining mid-level cloudiness decreasing through the evening.
Temperatures on Thursday are expected to peak around 105F late in
the afternoon, with readings remaining above 100F between 19Z and
04Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms continue to move across far southeastern
Nevada and northwest Arizona late this afternoon and evening. Winds
will be erratic and at times gusty in the vicinity of the more
robust convection, but otherwise winds should favor a southerly to
westerly direction this evening before returning to a more typical
diurnal wind pattern overnight. Near shower activity, CIGs AOA 10kft
AGL are likely. Elsewhere, FEW to SCT clouds with bases AOA 12kft
AGL are expected, gradually clearing from west to east overnight.
Winds on Thursday will favor southerly to westerly directions, with
occasional gusts to 20 knots likely in most areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions will become more favorable for the spread of wildfires
as we close out the week. As a strong storm system develops over
the Western U.S., breezy south to southwest winds will develop
along with low afternoon humidities. Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph
can be expected, perhaps even slightly stronger over the higher
terrain Friday through Saturday night. Humidities in the single
digits and low teens coupled with these windy conditions will
favor increase fire danger. This will be the case both for any new
fires and for the ongoing Kane Springs and Grapevine fires across
Lincoln County. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect, portions
of which will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warning in future
forecasts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...Planz

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office